Analysts say the national assessment report presented by minister in the presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni may have exaggerated a potential risk of a coup in SA.
Several analysts said while there were some weaknesses within the security cluster, it would not be easy to overthrow the government.
Ntshavheni on Tuesday said the security cluster was aware of a potential risk of a coup. “We have identified it [the risk of a coup] and we have put measures to mitigate against it," Ntshavheni said.
Independent political expert Goodenough Mashego said a coup is not realistic in SA because the constitution gives more power to parliament.
“In a country where the first stop is parliament and the second stop is the president, it is unrealistic. You would need to stage a coup against parliament for you to be in charge because a coup means they are illegitimate before anything else. It’s impossible, constitutionally, to be able to do that,” Mashego said.
He said Ntshavheni’s announcement was a scare tactic to distract the public from real issues.
“So it was more scare-crowing. I really think it should be suspicious that she staged her press conference at the same time that the ANC was also staging a press conference. It looked like an attempt to sophisticate people – to really say, ‘focus on this, don’t focus on that'. For me, it was just obfuscation. It was an attempt to say, ‘let’s focus on something else, don’t focus on the earthquake that they played on Sunday,’” he said.
Mashego said the state has systems to respond to threats and real coup threats. However, there are weaknesses, to which Prof Dirk Kotze from the University of SA agreed.
“There is definitely weakness in our security and there are comprehensive recommendations about the national intelligence, but not crime and military intelligence, but the national State Security Agency; however, there has been little progress in implementations," Kotze said.
There is definitely weakness in our security and there are comprehensive recommendations about the national intelligence, but not crime and military intelligence
— Prof Dirk Kotze
"One reason is that intelligence in general has been politicised. People talk about it being ‘weaponised’. It’s used in internal ANC politics to compromise people and gather information, not necessarily for national security reasons."
Kotze said the report Ntshavheni bases the risk of a coup on does not identify a coup as an immediate or short-term risk. "I think it’s a bit of an overstatement to say a coup is imminent based on what's in the actual document. From what I see in the assessment, it's not stated in that way,” he said.
Adv Sipho Mantula, a law expert, said SA would be able to respond to any threats. He said a coup is normally led by the military.
“What I read there was more about the idea that if the president takes action against Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi or proceeds with the case against him, it might cause unrest similar to what we saw in the July 2021 unrest."
He said Ntshavheni should have detailed what sort of coup she was talking about. “So you can’t just come out and say those things. I think the issue of the special task force wearing uniforms that resemble military attire was perhaps a misunderstanding,” he said.
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