As US and Israeli air strikes on Iran intensify, international relations experts are warning that South Africans may soon feel the impact at home — particularly in fuel prices, food costs and diplomatic relations.
International relations analyst advocate Sipho Mantula says the operation, which began on Saturday and which US President Donald Trump claims is aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, carries serious geopolitical and economic consequences for South Africa and the broader African region.
“The impact is huge geopolitically, economically and socially,” Mantula said.
“These attacks happened during Ramadan, which adds cultural and religious sensitivity to the conflict. But beyond that, this will affect global oil markets, shipping routes and relations within the Global South.”
Mantula warned that disruptions to key maritime routes, including vessels navigating Middle Eastern waters, could have knock-on effects for trade and fuel supply chains.
“When oil prices rise globally, South Africa feels it quickly. Fuel increases then affect transport and food prices. That is where ordinary citizens begin to feel it.”
He added that South Africa’s diplomatic positioning may also become more complicated given its Brics membership and the AU stance calling for de-escalation. Pretoria has already urged restraint and mediation.
“The issue of international law is central,” Mantula said.
Dr Alexander Rusero, a decoloniality and international relations scholar based in Zimbabwe, says what is unfolding is not merely a regional crisis but a reflection of global power imbalances.
“This is a stark illustration of how global power continues to be exercised through militarised dominance rather than genuine multilateral dialogue,” Rusero said.
“The cycle of external intervention and internal repression traps ordinary citizens between aggression and instability.”
Rusero warned that escalating tensions could narrow South Africa’s diplomatic room to manoeuvre. With Pretoria already facing scrutiny from Washington over its International Court of Justice case against Israel, renewed Middle East hostilities could heighten geopolitical pressure.
“This convergence intensifies economic risks for South Africa, including trade access and preferential arrangements such as AGOA, which are already under strain,” he said.
Meanwhile, the conflict is already disrupting travel. Affected countries include Qatar, Dubai, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Palestine.
The department of international relations and co-operation (Dirco) confirmed that airspace closures have left some South Africans stranded in affected Middle Eastern states.
“It’s impossible to move in or out of those countries. We are in touch with South Africans using various communication platforms. Evacuation plans exist, and various interventions are being explored,” said Dirco’s deputy director-general Clayson Monyela.
The Botswana government has also urged its estimated 300 nationals in the conflict region to avoid travel and remain in contact with diplomatic missions.
“The ministry wishes to inform that should the situation deteriorate, the available media platforms will be employed for further guidance relating thereto. Furthermore, Batswana are advised to avoid travelling to the affected countries and re-route their travel away from the Middle East airspace until the situation has calmed,” it said in a statement.
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