The agriculture sector is bracing itself for the worst as a possible fuel hike looms this week as tensions rise in the Middle East.
At the centre of the concern is not immediate shortages, but the rising cost of producing food and the consumers ultimately absorbing that pressure.
“Agribusinesses and agricultural logistics companies are also not insulated from these challenges,” said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA. “The risk of higher fuel prices and their impacts spreads across the sector.”
He said grains, oil seeds, and sugarcane, which underpin staple foods and food security, are particularly exposed.
“Fertiliser alone accounts for a significant share of input costs, with total production inputs making up at least 35% of farmers’ expenses. Fuel adds further strain, contributing roughly 13% of costs for grain farmers. South Africa imports about 80% of its fertiliser, roughly 2-million tonnes annually, from countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and China, placing the sector at the mercy of global price shocks and supply disruptions,“ said Sihlobo.
While supermarket shelves remain stocked, economists warn the real impact is building upstream.
“Our food stock is currently stable… we don’t see a short-term impact on availability,” said Brendan Jacobs, head of agribusiness at Standard Bank. “In the medium to longer term, we see an increase in prices.”
Jacobs stressed that farmers, often price takers rather than price makers, are limited in how much of these rising costs they can absorb. “It ultimately goes through the value chain… you can expect impact for the consumer,” he said.
Sihlobo said the timing compounds the risk.
“This is happening at a time when the sector is approaching yet another busy period, a critical planting window for winter crops, particularly in the Western and Northern Cape, where wheat, barley, canola, and oats are cultivated. There is a risk of higher fertiliser prices in the coming months,” Sihlobo warned.
In the Western Cape, provincial authorities have already begun coordinating responses from farmers.
Daniel Johnson, spokesperson for the provincial agriculture department, said weekly engagements are underway.
“It is the beginning of the planting season for winter grains… it becomes key to take stock of available fertiliser and agrochemicals,” he said. “A limited supply of these inputs due to war in the Middle East is concerning.”
But beyond global supply shocks, GrainSA, an industry body, has raised an alarm about local pricing behaviour.
GrainSA has received reports that some fertiliser companies may be increasing prices based on global developments, despite holding stock bought before the conflict at lower prices.
“Global crises should not be used as a pretext for unnecessary price increases in South Africa,” the organisation said. “Farmers cannot absorb unlimited input-cost shocks.”
The group has called for urgent interventions, including fuel levy relief, transparent pricing practices, and guarantees on diesel supply during planting and harvesting.
The impact of fuel increases the stakes that extend beyond farming margins. Commodities like maize and wheat are central to SA’s food security, and any sustained disruption in production economics could have knock-on effects for consumers later in the year.
Jacobs said for now, current harvest expectations offer some buffer. “The summer grain crop is nearing harvest, with production levels expected to mirror last year’s output, easing immediate supply concerns.
“We are more concerned about the feasibility and profitability of farmers. We foresee moderate consumer food price inflation towards the end of the year,” he said.
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