The ANC is likely to lose further ground in the upcoming local government elections, with the party’s support likely to be in the 30%–40% region, according to Fitch’s BMI.
A BMI report said service delivery, particularly water, energy and infrastructure, alongside crime and corruption, will be decisive issues in key battleground metros such as Johannesburg.
“The ANC usually performs worse in municipal than in national polls, given its poor service delivery at the local level. Its vote share declined to 40.2% in the 2024 general elections, and we expect its municipal performance will land between 30% and 40% of total vote share − well below a majority but still positioning it as the largest party,” BMI said.
“By contrast, we expect the DA to increase its municipal vote share from the 21.6% recorded in 2021. The party tends to outperform in local elections due to its comparatively strong governance record in the municipalities it controls.
“Its participation in the GNU, at a time when investor sentiment towards South Africa has improved, and the confirmed election of [Geordin] Hill‑Lewis as [DA] federal leader, strengthens this outlook.
“Hill‑Lewis’s dual role as national party leader and Cape Town mayor allows the DA to anchor its campaign in a tangible governance model that continues to outperform peer metros on infrastructure delivery, financial sustainability, and institutional capacity.”
The latest raw Ipsos data, which did not adjust for turnout or undecided voters, showed the ANC stands at 35% among registered voters in the national vote, with the DA second at 22% and the EFF and uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) tied at 11% each.
Looking through the metro lens, the Ipos data shows the DA having a stronger showing at 25%, the MKP at 14% and the EFF at 13%, with the ANC leading at 35%.
Political analyst at Ipsos South Africa, Mari Harris, told Sowetan sister publication Business Day there are six main factors that are going to influence the outcome and turnout of the local government elections, including political alienation and disengagement and dissatisfaction with current municipalities and youth trust deficit, among other reasons.
“In spite of more than 500 political parties registered so far, almost half (47%) of South Africans say there is no political party representing their views,” Harris said.
“Ipsos’ most recent survey was conducted in December 2025/January 2026. A lot of things have happened since then; thus, the chances are that these support figures shifted… We are conducting fieldwork for the next study.
“However, looking only at the possible support at that stage in the local government election, the ANC gets 38% overall. But, if you look at the possible vote in metropolitan areas only, ANC support is 35%. This will still move a bit before 4 November.”
BMI said the ANC will face a hard slog in Johannesburg and eThekwini.
“Given the lack of an announced ANC candidate and the poor service delivery under ANC mayor Dada Morero, the race for Johannesburg mayor will likely be between DA’s Helen Zille and ActionSA’s party leader Herman Mashaba,” the report reads.
“Meanwhile, after losing its majority in eThekwini at the 2021 municipal elections and haemorrhaging votes more broadly in KZN at the 2024 general elections with the rise of the MKP and a strong showing by the IFP, the ANC will be looking to strengthen its showing in KZN,” BMI said
“This will be seen as an opportunity given that the MKP appears to have lost momentum after its strong showing at the 2024 election. The province’s economic importance, anchored by manufacturing and the Durban and Richards Bay ports, means that municipal outcomes there will carry national economic and political significance.” − Business Day
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