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Weather experts have warned people to stay informed and be vigilant about their surroundings before the El Niño weather event expected to affect South Africa in the next few months.
El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern characterised by the warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with ramifications for dozens of countries, including South Africa.
Kelebogile Mathole, a senior scientist for long-range forecasting at the South African Weather Service (Saws), said: “Households can start being more careful with water use, take heat warnings seriously, and avoid activities that may increase the risk of veld fires. Also make sure that vulnerable people, livestock and pets are protected during very hot conditions.
“Most importantly, people should keep following official Saws forecasts and warnings, especially warnings relating to heatwaves, high fire danger, severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and flooding.”
Mathole said for South Africa specifically, “El Niño is generally associated with an increased chance of hotter and drier conditions during the summer rainfall season”.
Households can start being more careful with water use [and] take heat warnings seriously
— Kelebogile Mathole, South African Weather Service
Warmer and drier conditions during late spring and into summer (October to December) are expected as El Niño settles.
“But still, this does not mean every week, or every day, will be hot and dry,” said Mathole. “El Niño does not automatically mean that South Africa will experience drought. There have been El Niño events in the past that were associated with serious drought, but there have also been strong El Niño events where the rainfall impact over South Africa was not as severe.”
Even in a generally drier summer, she said, it is important to note that South Africa can still get heavy thunderstorms, localised flooding and other severe weather events.
“As Saws, we will continue monitoring these events and update the public as necessary and as more new information becomes available.”
The agriculture department has warned farmers to implement risk-reduction measures and stay alert to updates from Saws.
Noluthando Mtolo, acting director of media and external communication in the agriculture department, said El Niño conditions might bring below-normal rainfall and high temperatures, leading to dry conditions and heat stress.
“This often contributes to crop failure and livestock mortalities, especially where risk-reduction measures are not implemented. Water restrictions also come into effect when rainfall is low and usually affect irrigation farmers. The other issues of concern are pests and diseases associated with these conditions.”
Mtolo said crop farmers are advised to use water sparingly, as it is a scarce resource, for example, by implementing water-harvesting techniques and using best irrigation practices such as drip systems. Livestock farmers are encouraged to keep livestock in balance with the carrying capacity of the veld and available grazing.
“Anticipated hot conditions during the summer season are usually associated with related pests and diseases; therefore, farmers are urged to continually scout and put control measures in place where necessary. This comprises regular vet visits, including vaccinations,” she said.
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