ANC's fate in municipal election hangs on how it handles state capture report

How the ANC fares in this year’s municipal elections will largely depend on how it handles the outcome of the state capture’s report and gaining control of “rogue” members within the party.

This is the view shared by political analysts as the party will seek to regain lost support in the country's major metros. The governing party lost its grip on power in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay Metro and was forced to co-govern through a coalition in Ekurhuleni after the 2016 local government elections.

But now with failed coalition governments in the three major metros, this year's local government elections will likely be fiercely contested by political parties.

According to political analyst Professor Somadoda Fikeni, the local government election will be a real test of the support of the big three political parties – the EFF, ANC and DA.

Fikeni said if the ANC's national general council (NGC), which is expected to be held this year, becomes "messy and dramatic", the ANC was most likely going to suffer losses in the municipal elections. The NGC is a platform where the ANC takes stock of the progress made since the party's last conference.

"[President Cyril] Ramaphosa has to be nervous [going into the NGC], just like his opponents [he] will be nervous because his opponents tried the NEC to torpedo him in a coordinated fashion and it didn't work. So they may also be worried that if they lose this one it might be a long shot before the 2022 national elective conference," Fikeni said.

The ruling party is currently facing turbulent times, with its leaders such as secretary- general Ace Magashule implicated in criminal cases. 

"You are going to have a defining moment indeed in terms of the battle itself between your Ace Magashules, the Jacob Zuma faction and that of Ramaphosa. It will define whether the ANC tilts in one way or the other," Fikeni said.

Another political analyst, Ralph Mathekga, said 2021 promises to be filled with drama on the politics scene.

 "With the report of the [Zondo] commission expected to come out in March, the party will be forced to act against implicated members. As we have seen recently, the party is also battling to control its own members in the likes of Magashule and  Zuma. At some point the party will have to prove that it is not a party of personalities," he said.

Mathekga said the decisions that "the party will take on its rogue members are likely to determine if the ANC will step up at the elections or wobble again".

Dr Mcebisi Ndletyana said the report by the auditor-general and the Special Investigating Unit on Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), which are expected to be released this year, will put a spanner in the works for the ruling party.

“This year will be a turning point for the ruling party and gives it a chance to rejuvenate and renew itself by acting on unethical members who could be implicated in the PPE scandals and in the Zondo Commission. Magushule’s trial will also be the test for the party to show SA where it stands or whether it allows certain individual to dominate it,” said Ndletyana.