With time running out before municipalities have to constitute councils and elect mayors – the ANC's recent deals with the IFP and PA may have secured Joburg and Ekurhuleni for Luthuli House.
The ANC's behind-the-scenes manoeuvres saw a power-sharing deal with the Patriotic Alliance being clinched and an agreement with the IFP reached this week, effectively shutting the path for a DA-led coalition in the two Gauteng metros.
Political analysts believe with all parties desperate to govern, the ANC, which is desperate to keep Ekurhuleni and Joburg, was forced to make some serious compromises to hold on to the jewel metros.
Prof Mcebisi Ndletyana, associate professor of politics at the University of Johannesburg and author of Anatomy of the ANC in Power, said the ANC had to decide which municipalities it wanted more.
"It depends on where the ANC thinks which municipality they want to have or it's worth saving because they can't have everything, so they have to prioritise and decide which one do they prefer," Ndletyana said.
He said he was "surprised at the ease" that the ANC got into bed with the PA following how their previous coalition in Joburg had unfolded.
"I, however, don't think we should single out the ANC for special condemnation simply because it got into an alliance with parties, it had to... as all parties want to be in government," Ndletyana said.
He, however, labelled the PA as the biggest winners of the 2021 local government elections given their growth and the deals scored in the power-sharing deals they are in.
After EFF leader Julius Malema announced that his party will be abstaining from voting in the hung municipalities, the ANC looks set to return to both Ekurhuleni and Joburg with just a simple majority with the backing of PA and IFP.
Joburg is arguably the country's most sought-after metro with the biggest budget, and the ANC already looks home and dry with support from Aljama with three seats, the IFP and Patriotic Alliance with seven and eight respectively.
The ruling party can bank on support from Cope COPE, the PAC and other smaller parties such as ATM and AIC in the two metros.
Political analyst and director of research at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra) Prof Susan Booysens said the metros are a bigger prize for the ANC.
"The metros are a massive prize to gain and it will probably mean the ANC would be compromising flirting with the EFF, now that it has the IFP and the PA and is still short of seats," Booysens said.
She said she foresees a situation in which the EFF will reach an agreement with the ANC in exchange of mayoral committee positions both in Ekurhuleni and Joburg.
"I wouldn't be surprised if the ANC settles with the EFF... Julius [Malema] has earlier scaled down on their big ideological demands and gave them very concrete interpretations in terms of what local governments can do," Booysens said.
She said Joburg was way too big and important for the ANC not to push to get a 50 plus majority government.
In Tshwane, the ANC secured 75 of the 214 seats in the council and needs 33 seats to secure a clear majority while the DA needs 38 seats.
The DA was in pole position to form a coalition government in the capital city as both ActionSA and the FF Plus, with their combined 36 seats and the ACDP with its two seats, who are set to join the Blues, do guarantee victory.
In Ekurhuleni, the ANC needs 23 seats to cross the line while the DA is short of 47 seats while the EFF has 31 crucial seats with Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA holding 15 seats. Other players are the FF Plus with eight, and the PA with four.
The IFP and IAC each have three seats and the ACDP two in the country's manufacturing hub which is also home to the OR Tambo International Airport.
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