'Tricky year' for Cyril as opponents gun for him

A tough year looms for President Cyril Ramaphosa as forces in the ANC opposed to his presidency are expected to intensify their bid to oust him.

This is according to political analysts who spoke to Sowetan after an eventful ANC 110th birthday celebration in Polokwane, Limpopo, which was marred by a power blackout while Ramaphosa addressed the party's fundraising dinner and a parallel programme by a faction opposed to him.

Political analyst Sandile Swana described 2022 as a “tricky, thorny year for Ramaphosa” as “RET [radical economic transformation] forces made up of securocrats” intensify efforts to oust him.

He cited the occasion when the lights went off as Ramaphosa was addressing an ANC fundraising gala dinner held at the Protea Hotel Polokwane Ranch Resort on Friday night as an example of efforts against Ramaphosa and his presidency.

“The past week [in Limpopo] has shown that the notion of unity of the ANC... is built on a false analysis and notion,” Swana said.

He said Ramaphosa knows that his bodyguards are not just around to enhance his status as a president, they need to be vigilant and “cannot be playing games on their cellphones”.

“I think there will be efforts to discredit Ramaphosa at the national general council [meeting in December], which will be used to directly attack him,” Swana said.

Swana said even though the ANC has been losing votes at the polls since 2009, “the fight for its soul would still intensify even though its electoral prospects remain on a downward spiral”.

He believes that the ANC will see the trend of losing electoral support continue into the next general elections in 2024.

Another political analyst, Dr Ralph Mathekga, said the stand-off between the two ANC factions, with Ramaphosa being the face of one of them, will intensify as the party goes into its elective conference.

“It's now difficult for anyone to sit on the fence as the party will go to the elective conference divided into two. These are like the penalty shoot-outs, sudden death,” Mathekga said.

He said the incidents of the past week in Limpopo demonstrated the extreme lengths party members divided along factional lines were prepared to go to as they take each other on.

Citing the blackout that occurred when Ramaphosa spoke, Mathekga said: “Some of these ANC people are just silly, as some of the things they do are childish and stupid. Who does such, trying to mute someone?”

Political commentator Levy Ndou said an attack on Ramaphosa looks likely to happen, though on a “lower scale” as “most people are realigning themselves and don't necessarily want to be seen as pro or anti a particular faction”.

Ndou said the failure to pass the land expropriation bill, start a state bank and the sluggish economy are some of the issues to be raised at the NGC that will see the blame being placed on Ramaphosa by the RET faction.

He said, however, that the biggest problem for the RET faction is not having a candidate, except the suspended party secretary-general Ace Magashule, who could challenge for the presidency and also be a face that the ANC could use to win at the polls.

Cosatu general secretary Bheki Ntshalintshali said the fight for control of the ANC was inevitable but warned against it being allowed to further undermine the renewal programme of the party.

“It is in the nature of congress that people will contest each other for the positions and power, but I think both factions know that there will be no ANC to fight for if they are allowed to undermine the programme of rebuilding the party,” Ntshalintshali said.

“What we are hoping in the year ahead is that despite their differences, they will understand that they need to save the ANC because they will be fighting from the opposition benches if they destroy the party in the process.”

While welcoming the party’s stated priorities in the January 8 statement, Cosatu has lamented that the ANC had pronounced the need to renew itself as early as 2012 but failed to implement the programmes.

During his January 8 address, Ramaphosa said the party's renewal was “being assailed at various levels by acts of institutional and social disruption”. – additional reporting Siviwe Feketha