For Cosatu, the probability of the ANC losing power is no longer a hypothetical question but a matter of when.
Contained in the labour federation's political and organisational report, the union asks where it will position itself when that eventuality finally becomes a reality.
Cosatu will convene its 14th national congress later this month at the Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand, where 2,000 delegates are meant to delve deeper into the policy discussion documents presented during a media briefing yesterday at the union's headquarters.
The document notes that the 2021 local government elections reaffirmed the trending decline of the ANC's electoral support amid mismanagement and the swelling service delivery backlogs at local government level.
For the first time since the 1994 elections, the ANC drew less than 50% of support from votes at a national level — a figure anticipated to drop even further in the 2024 general elections.
“At the moment, more than a third of our population lives under the control of the DA, which is now running all the metros of Gauteng. In addition, the DA is now in charge of 38 municipalities, including in the heartlands of the ANC such as Modimole in Limpopo,” the document reads.
SA has 278 municipalities in 44 districts and 226 local municipalities.
Cosatu says going forward, there is a possibility the ANC will be unable to form part of provincial governments post the 2024 elections.
“Therefore, the immediate question that we have to confront and answer is not so much whether the prospects of the ANC losing majority in 2024 are real, but what would be the implications for our strategic agenda of the deepening of the national democratic revolution.
“What would then become of the working class struggles on bread-and-butter issues both at the workplace and in communities in the face of an upper hand enjoyed by monopoly capital and a hostile government,” the report said.
During the 2019 general election the ANC received 57.5% at the polls and this was during the height of President Cyril Ramaphosa's popularity with the voting majority.
Ramaphosa was elected on an anti-corruption ticket that promised to renew the ANC, something which Cosatu acknowledged as a positive move.
However, the union continued, at the heart of the ANC's challenges were factions, corruption and criminality which had weakened the movement.
To circumvent this and rid itself of corruption within its ranks, the party introduced the step-aside rule which bars criminally charged members from contesting elections and being nominated.
This resulted in high-profile party leaders being put on ice, including suspended secretary-general Ace Magashule, who is facing multiple charges of corruption, fraud and money laundering.
“If the ANC is to win and retain power in the 2024 elections nationally and provincially, then it needs to deal decisively with corruption, rebuild the state and end load-shedding, fix embattled state-owned enterprises, spur the economy and reduce unemployment,” the report read.
Yesterday, Stats SA released the second quarter GDP results which showed SA’s GDP fell by 0.7% after an increase of 1.7% in the first quarter of 2022.
Cosatu first deputy president and Nehawu president Mike Shingange said for as long as the country had energy uncertainty, to expect anything more would be wanting a miracle.
“To expect the economy to grow when major infrastructure meant to grow the economy and create jobs are being destroyed... If those are not strengthened then growing the economy is something that won’t happen.
“There’s a lot that doesn’t allow the economy to grow. To expect the economy to grow even when framework agreements during a presidential summit were not adhered to is expecting a miracle,” Shingange said.
nkosin@sowetan.co.za
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