Mkhize could still unseat Cyril next month: his backers

The Zweli Mkhize campaign has not given up on its ambition of seeing the former health minister emerge ANC president at Nasrec in December.

This is despite the ANC yesterday announcing branch nomination results, which showed incumbent party  president, Cyril Ramaphosa, enjoying more than double the number received by his rival. Ramaphosa was nominated by 2,037 branches while Mkhize was nominated by 916.

Mkhize’s campaign insiders say they had expected Ramaphosa to toll about 60% of the branch nominations and Mkhize to get around 35% with the balance going to the Lindiwe Sisulu and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma campaigns.

Mkhize got 26%. which is 9% less than what was hoped for.

“The 17% that would have voted for candidates other than Mkhize or Ramaphosa is 12% higher than we had expected. Cyril got 57% and that is with all the benefits of incumbency. We believe that he has hit the ceiling. It cannot get better. In fact it could get much less.”

The Mkhize insider suggested to Sowetan that some branches would have accepted financial help from Ramaphosa aligned funders and would therefore have pretended to support the ANC president to continue enjoying the benefit.

Others might have gone along with the dominant ANC faction to avoid its general meetings not being invalidated or those whose leaders are in the employ of the state, not being made to suffer reprisals because of their voting choices.

He added that with branch nominations out of the way, they expected that those branches who went along with the Ramaphosa slate to avoid its leaders being targeted by the criminal justice system or for fear of employment opportunity reprisals for not supporting the incumbent, were now free to vote openly.

With Ngcobo next week, things could still change a lot,” he said in reference to the panel led by former Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo probing whether Ramaphosa has a case to answer for in relation to the theft of foreign currency from his Limpopo game farm, Phala Phala.

Siphiwe Bulose Mkhize’s chief lobbyist added: “The biggest takeout from this nomination process is that the majority of Gauteng branches, the nation’s economic hub, have expressed a view that the incumbent should not be re-elected for a second term and only a paltry 57% of branches, nationally, have expressed a view that he should.

If this is not a vindication of our stance that the majority of ANC branches are crying out for a change of leadership, I don’t know what it is. This is especially so given our firm belief that even this 57% figure is a gross distortion of the reality on the ground,” Bulose said.

House speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula is expected to receive the report on November 30, with a debate in the house to happen December 6.

According to the insiders, Mkhize was due a heart to heart talk with deputy president candidate Paul Mashatile who seems to have abandoned the former KZN premier’s bloc and joined hands with Ramaphosa.

Mashatile scored 1,791 nominations.

Mkhize’s team say Mashatile benefited from his association with Mkhize and that could change if he chose to associate himself with the Ramaphosa campaign.

“Mashatile would have received more than 600 of the votes he got from KZN. If you add the 915 that came from the same source as the Mkhize votes, he might have a problem with others who are on the same slate if he no longer has those numbers.”

According to an excel sheet released by the ANC, Mkhize unsurprisingly received the most nominations from his home province KwaZulu-Natal with 643 branches nominating him in contrast to only 60 branches nominating Ramaphosa in the province.

Ramaphosa’s support was spread out across the provinces with the Eastern Cape taking the lead in terms of support for the president who is seeking a second term when 430 branches nominated him and 400 branches also nominated him in Limpopo.

“This process is not yet complete because as you know at conference there will be an opportunity for delegates to nominate from the floor and of course any names that muster 25% of voting delegates will then also be included onto the ballot paper. 

“We will come back to you with regards to the 200 names from whom the additional members will be elected at the conference.”

During the ANC’s last national executive committee meeting, Ramaphosa faced calls that he should step aside following the Phala Phala scandal.

The meeting was meant to receive a report from the integrity committee but insiders said the bpdy said the report was not ready.

Final nomination numbers

President

Ramaphosa 2,037

Mkhize 916

Deputy President position

Paul Mashatile with 1,791

Ronald Lamola 427

Oscar Mabuyane 397

Chairperson

Stanley Mathabatha 1,492

Gwede Mantashe 979

David Masondo 501

Secretary-General

Mdumiseni Ntuli 1,225

Phumulo Masualle 889

Fikile Mbalula 749

Treasurer-General

Benjamin Chauke 552

Pule Mabe 428

Mzwandile Masina 348