Will he go or will he stay?

SA is a nation on a knife's edge with the future of President Cyril Ramaphosa expected to be decided by his party this weekend.

On Thursday, South Africans expected a national address from the president following the independent panel’s findings that he has a case to answer to about the origins of the foreign currency stolen from his Phala Phala farm in February 2020. 

Following the release of the report on Wednesday, the country went into a tailspin with amplified calls for Ramaphosa to resign as president. If he doesn't resign it would mean the legal fight to clear his name begins. If he does resign, it means the search for his replacement to take the ANC to the 2024 general elections starts.

Ramaphosa is said to have spent much of his day yesterday consulting with his allies such as finance minister Enoch Godongwana, minister in the presidency Mondli Gungubele and energy minister Gwede Mantashe, who are said to have been talking him out of resigning. 

The group had previously successfully convinced him not to resign in June when the Phala Phala scandal first emerged.

A Ramaphosa ally, speaking to Sowetan earlier on Thursday, said Ramaphosa would probably want to resign following the release of the report.

“That report, summarised, says one thing. He is a liar. That’s it. Whether he is on the right or wrong side of the law doesn’t really matter. In the public eye, it says that he lied. Knowing him, he will want to resign. I can’t see him staying in office after being labelled a liar. Those things matter to him.”

The report found there was no evidence as to how the money came into the country and the exact amount of foreign currency stolen is yet to be disclosed.

The report also found inconsistencies between the president’s version of events and that of the head of the presidential protection unit, Wally Rhoode. 

Ramaphosa denied he was guilty of any allegations made against him.

The NEC member said their backing of Ramaphosa’s second term was their strongest political strategy to, hopefully, win the 2024 national elections.

“We never really considered anyone else (to back at the Nasrec conference) because the plan was for him to win a second term (as ANC president), giving us a chance to retain over 50% of the vote in 2024 and then in that period we could groom another candidate for succession. We have now been beaten by events.

“We are meeting trying to figure out what to do. The only option is to have the Cat (David Mabuza) take us to the conference in the next two weeks and  then we see who to back at Nasrec,” he said.

Asked if party treasurer-general Paul Mashatile could be that candidate, the insider said:  “He could be. But we know he won’t win us 50% in 2024.”

Ramaphosa’s spokesperson Vincent Magwenya told reporters the president was considering all options available to him. “The president appreciates the urgency, enormity of this issue, what it means for country and stability of governance and as a result is still processing the report and engaging stakeholders.

"All options are on the table but what’s important is choosing a path or route that first and foremost is in the interest of the country in respect to interest of government ... and that’s what will guide the president. The president is not panicking, I can assure you,” Magwenya said.

Another ANC NEC member said the concern was not December (the ANC elective conference) but for the future, particularly 2024.

"The problem is you don’t want another Nkandla where he contests the report then we sit in court for two years not knowing if he’ll win it and the ANC is dragged into the process."

A staunch Ramaphosa ally in the NEC said  he must be afforded time and space to deal with the allegations contained in the report.

"It's unfortunate but we shouldn't be too quick to judge. Reports always come, we’re sitting with the Zondo commission report where certain comrades are implicated; they have taken the report under review and are sitting in their positions now and have not been charged. There’s nothing special about this report.

"This report does not say he ought to be charged and that’s what comforts us. It’s only when they make that determination that we can begin to worry," the NEC member said.

Another Ramaphosa supporter said deputy president David Mabuza would step in until the conference to be held in Nasrec.

During the ANC NEC additional members list announcement on Thursday, electoral committee head Kgalema Motlanthe said that Mabuza came in 115th position out of 200 names announced.

This is a clear indication in the drop of his popularity within the ranks of the ANC.

"The indication is he [Ramaphosa] may resign. Mabuza is the natural progression and the constitution is clear on what happens when a president is ill-disposed. But that's in government and something different may happen in the party and it could possibly decide otherwise.

"We're in a tough one because there’s a context when it comes to issues of the candidates. Over and above the branch nominations, there’s still the provision of who can rise from the floor. Right now we're not sure who among the candidates will emerge," the insider said.