The ANC heads into the crucial national elective conference this weekend burdened by warring factions and two presidential candidates who both have adverse findings hanging over their heads.
President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has the Phala Phala cloud hanging over him, is being contested by former health minister Zweli Mkhize, who lost his job in government in the aftermath of the Digital Vibes scandal.
With factions for both men criss-crossing the country to garner support for their candidates, this week marked a significant milestone with most provinces concluding their provincial general councils – the last step to consolidate support ahead of conference.
Analysts have, however, said the conference falls short of being characterised as watershed despite open divisions that have plagued the party since Ramaphosa was elected president in 2017.
Though Ramaphosa was elected on the ticket of unity, open divisions have mirrored those last seen during the Polokwane 2007 and Mangaung 2012 conferences.
Nelson Mandela University political anaylist Dr Ongama Mtimka said there were two considerations going into the conference: whether the ANC would be able to rebuild from an inevitable decline below 50% and whether relationships had been simplified beyond the 2017 conference.
“The strong dominance of Cyril Ramaphosa suggests that he will have a simpler political environment to fulfil what he wants to achieve during his second term with the RET faction seemingly obliterated,” he said.
Mtimka did not think this would be a watershed conference for the ANC. “I think Polokwane and Mangaung were watershed because it [ANC] had an organisation that was split in half. This time there is a very dominant president and an opponent that will face his final obliteration,” Mtimka said.
On Tuesday, ANC MPs shut down all hopes of an impeachment committee being established after they rejected an independent panel’s report which had found that Ramaphosa “might have” a case to answer to with the origins of stolen currency stolen on his Phala Phala farm in Limpopo three years ago.
The theft could’ve been Ramaphosa’s Achilles Heel, but thanks to the ANC using its numbers to shield Ramaphosa, he was spared from an impeachment process being instituted.
Ramaphosa was nominated by 2,037 branches while Mkhize received only 916.
However, more worrying for the ANC was how one of the party’s more senior personalities, co-operative governance and traditional affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, defied the party line and voted in favour of the report.
Dlamini-Zuma was joined by four other ANC MPs who now face the wrath of the party for going against the instructions of the national executive committee (NEC) as delivered by chairman Gwede Mantashe during a caucus meeting ahead of Tuesday’s vote.
While most are expecting fireworks at the weekend conference to be held in Nasrec, at least two provincial secretaries who spoke to Sowetan said they expected the ANC to come out with policies that would be implemented to change the lives of South Africans.
KwaZulu-Natal provincial secretary Bheki Mtolo said expectation was that Mkhize would close the conference on the last day.
“A conference of the ruling party of a country will always be important because it determines the policy of the country going forward. The policies that will be adopted are about South Africans, policies which include findings solutions to the country’s energy crisis.
“By the way, I’m pleased the fool [Eskom CEO Andre] De Ruyter has accepted that he’s stupid, that he doesn’t know what he’s doing and resigned. The conference will be dealing exactly with issues such as of stabilising energy generation in the country,” Mtolo said.
Mtolo said those who in the lead-up to the conference said the current ANC was more divided than when former president Jacob Zuma was elected were “delusional”.
ANC Gauteng provincial chairperson Panyaza Lesufi, whose province is behind Ramaphosa’s second term bid, affirmed this position yesterday during his address to the provincial general council [PGC].
“As this PGC we will tell South Africans what the voice of ordinary branches in Gauteng is. However, you can make your own choices comrades ... but when it comes to the position of the deputy president of the ANC, that name is Paul Mashatile,” Lesufi said.
Earlier in the week, ANC Eastern Cape chairman Oscar Mabuyane said the province’s support for Ramaphosa was unwavering.
“We base this mandate on the gains delivered by his leadership of the renewal agenda in the ANC as directed by the 2017 Nasrec conference, and his outstanding leadership of government in his deployment as the first citizen of the country,” Mabuyane said.
Mpumalanga ANC provincial secretary Muzi Chirwa, one of Ramaphosa's supporters, said: “There are internal-party political conflicts that this conference must resolve to prepare ourselves for the upcoming 2024 elections. Through this conference we must achieve a generational mix to ensure that more younger people ascend to leadership positions,” Chirwa said.
Senior lecturer at the University of Limpopo Dr Metji Makgoba said Ramaphosa’s second term is guaranteed. “He doesn’t have total control of the NEC but he’s lucky because they need him. He has earned some fake image of being a battalion of anti-corruption. He’s been quite smart about it as he never denied that corruption exists,” Makgoba said.
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