What a year! As this year draws to a close, I thought it appropriate to reflect the passing year and meditate on the 12 months ahead of us.
This extraordinarily difficult year ends on a mixed note – a glimmer of hope and anxiety ahead.
As an optimist, let me start with the positive side of the balance sheet.
At least about three Covid-19 vaccine candidates are on the brink of being approved by various regulators – and our country has played its part in this effort.
According to Statistics SA, our economy has rebounded during the past quarter after a sharp contraction of the second quarter (the period of the hard lockdown) and as many as more than half-a-million workers who fell off the labour market radar during the second quarter managed to return to work during the third quarter.
According to research from Business Partners, most small businesses are confident about future prospects.
In our country, we have a potentially exciting multibillion-rand infrastructure investment programme which, if properly executed, should help stimulate our economy and provide jobs to millions of unemployed South Africans, especially our youth.
Of course, on the global scene, two interrelated events are unfolding: first, the retrenchment of America’s international humanitarian, military and economic role looks likely to be reversed under President-elect Joe Biden’s administration; and second, there is fresh impetus among global nations to work towards saving our planet for future generations.
At the start of 2021, our continent will take another step towards integrating its economies through the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) – in effect, Africa will become a single 1.2bn market with a combined $3.4-trillion gross domestic market. If this works – as it should – it will strengthen Africa’s hand on the negotiating table with global trading partners.
That said, it would be foolhardy to de-emphasise the impact of the unfolding crisis.
We close the year also on a negative note. Of the 2m people who lost their jobs, a million and a half have not returned to work, and the economic rebound is off a low base to reduce joblessness and poverty. Worse, as we learnt from the auditor-general’s Covid-19 financial report last week, the bulk of the relief measures have yet to reach the intended beneficiaries thanks to a combination of incompetence and corruption.
Of the more than 100 surveys of the Covid-19 impact on small businesses, one of the most depressing predictions suggests that as many as 50,000 firms in this segment might not make it through the pandemic. Probably, this figure is on the estimate side as it likely doesn’t include the informal sector and gig economy operators.
From research, we also know that the impact of Covid-19 has been disproportionately felt by black African women – most of whom are caregivers to millions of South Africans.
Similarly, we close the year on a depressing note: when those fortunate among us to have kept jobs and livelihoods are preparing to head off to holiday destinations and villages and townships, we are witnessing the onset of the second and most vicious wave of the Covid-19 virus: a rise in infections and fatalities amid the promising news of a vaccine to protect people.
As a football lover, two months ago I invested in buying AmaZulu Football Club. Within a month the country has lost two gifted players – defenders Anele Ngcongca and Motjeka Madisha – to car accidents. This has to stop. As the professional football community, we have to find better ways of protecting our best assets – the stars of the game – as a matter of urgency. Two deaths in one month are too much.
Similarly, almost a year of living with Covid-19, we have enough non-pharmaceutical tools to fight the spread of the novel coronavirus. As the infections and fatalities rise again, we have to employ those strategies – wash or sanitise our hands, wear face coverings or masks, and maintain social distancing. Unfortunately, all of these measures mean that our festive season will have to be restricted.
For policymakers and authorities, we cannot ignore the lessons of the months of lockdown: help is still badly needed by households and firms, and all hurdles should be removed so it reaches the intended beneficiaries. Crucially, our economy is too fragile to endure another hard lockdown.
Finally, we have to ensure that the socioeconomic infrastructure investment programme and the AfCFTA benefit black African small and medium-sized enterprises and co-operatives, not only turn into a festival of big multinational original equipment manufacturers.
• Zungu is president of the Black Business Council and founder and chairman of Zungu Investments Company which owns AmaZulu Football Club.
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