Let me confess. I voted for the first time ever in the 2019 general elections. Before that I had never set foot inside a voting booth. This is because by the time I was able to make a relatively informed decision about our electoral options, I was already an aggrieved citizen who was fed up with the lies and thieving of the ANC and utterly unconvinced by the opposition.
My apprehension was even worse for municipal elections. With compelling reasons, I would fiercely defend my right not to vote, including that my vote would not move the needle either way. Below is an example of why I was wrong. About two weeks ago Gauteng MEC Lebogang Maile announced yet another intervention into the Emfuleni municipality in Sedibeng, Gauteng.
Since then reporters of this newspaper have shone the spotlight on that municipality, detailing the spectacular collapse of basic services and as a result, the harrowing impact on the lives of ordinary people. From water shortages, power cuts, sewage running down the potholed roads and businesses that have been pushed to the brink, the place is a broken dream and a stunning betrayal of its Struggle history.
When we published the stories, an interesting narrative emerged in the public reaction. “They voted for the ANC and got what they voted for,” many retorted. Only a closer look at the election numbers tells a slightly more nuanced story than that of a majority ANC support.
According to official stats, Emfuleni has a population of just over 733,000 people. About 500,000 of them are adults, eligible to vote. Of those adults about 360,000 people are registered to vote. In the last 2016 local government elections, only 199,000 (54%) of registered voters actually cast their ballot.
From the total number of ballot casts, the ANC got 56% of the vote. Put differently, 109,000 people voted for the ANC in Emfuleni in the last municipal poll. This number fell slightly from the 126,000 votes (70%) the party walked away with in the previous municipal election in 2011. What do these numbers tell us? First they debunk the myth that the ANC enjoys the electoral support of the majority of people who live in Emfuleni.
Only 109,000 out of 500,000 adults who live there actually placed their trust in the ANC. This means almost 400,000 adults either rejected the party itself or the entire voting process for various reasons. Either way it is factually incorrect to assume that the ANC’s power in that municipality is a reflection of the wishes of the majority of its adult population. Second these numbers tell a story of an opposition that has failed to capture the imagination of voters.
In 2016 only about 48,000 people voted for the DA, translating to 24% of the vote. Only 23,800 people voted for the EFF, giving them a mere 12% of the vote. This means even with a dismally failing ANC, the next two biggest political parties could not convince a sizeable number of people that they could do better than the crooks in charge. Here it is probably necessary to point out that the median age of people who live in Emfuleni is 28 years. This suggests that their decisions about voting are likely influenced by their experiences and views on electoral options rather than historic loyalty to the ANC. If this is the case, then we must assume that they believe the opposition’s value proposition is neither compelling, credible nor relatable enough for them to invest in.
The third picture painted by these numbers is one of voter apathy and the direct impact thereof on the quality of leadership and efficiency of institutions. Out of a voting population of 500,000 only 199,000 showed up to cast their ballot in 2016. This effectively means about 300,000 adults who were eligible to vote did not bother to participate in the process. We must ask why.
If they are anything like I was, they would probably argue that not only do they not have confidence in our electoral options but they do not believe that their ballot could in any way move the needle. However, the numbers above suggest that the latter may not necessarily be the case. They demonstrate that while voter apathy is driven by an unwillingness to support any party, such disengagement has the exact opposite effect on electoral outcomes. This is because apathy leaves room for a few to ultimately decide the fate of the majority. The collapse of Emfuleni and other municipalities is both a reflection of the minority who voted for the ANC and the majority to left it up to them to do so.
• Makunga is Sowetan editor
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