In a few days, thousands of South Africans will be travelling to various destinations – places of worship and leisure – as part of celebrating the Easter weekend. This is a difficult time for policy-makers: namely, what to prescribe in the middle of a pandemic.
A year ago, we had moved into the national lockdown to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic or Covid-19. No-one was allowed to move around at night as part of the night-to-dawn curfew; we were asked to stop moving around unnecessarily; we were asked to wash our hands or sanitise them; and places of leisure and worship were asked to close as part of a social distancing regime.
A few months later, other measures were implemented to ease the impact of Covid-19 on firms and households. A Covid-19 social grant was introduced for all those who were not receiving any grant, laid-off workers were given relief through the unemployment fund, and commercial banks gave some breathing space to their clients and two charitable families – the Ruperts and Oppenheimers – gave R2bn to distressed small businesses and their employees.
All these measures helped to contain the rapid spread of the deadly virus. Without them, most probably the Covid-19 deaths would have been far higher than the current 52,000. That is the part of the human cost of the virus.
The cost to the economy has been equally devastating. More than a million South Africans have lost their jobs – and income – as a result of the pandemic which has, uniquely, affected both demand and supply.
As we approach the Easter weekend, we have to ask: what (more) do we need to do to ensure that the weekend is not remembered as a super-spreader event? This isn’t the question only for South Africans; around the world all leaders are facing the same question.
After a year of various iterations of lockdown, we know what has worked and what has not. In the absence of a vaccine, we know the non-pharmaceutical interventions were effective.
In other words, when we keep apart from each other, sanitise or wash our hands and stopped gathering in large numbers, the virus’ spread slowed down.
This hasn’t come without cost. As well as the economic cost, the pandemic has also forced changes to our culture. We have been forced to watch our loved ones dying and we haven’t been allowed to attend their funerals. This is painful.
A month ago, we began with the vaccination programme. The rollout hasn’t been as effective as we would have wanted. We need to accelerate the pace to ensure we don’t lose 100,000 lives, especially through a deadly combination of winter and super-spreader events.
For policy-makers, it is tempting to shut down the economy with stricter lockdown restrictions. That would be very harmful to the fragile economy, firms and households.
It would also mean that we haven’t learnt anything from the year of lockdowns. We need to show we have learnt. This economy is too frail to take another body blow of a harder lockdown.
Put differently, we need a much more nuanced approach to lockdown as the vaccine rollout is still at its infancy. As well as continuing to apply the non-pharmaceutical measures, we need to be smarter in regulating deadly economic and social activities.
Instead of shutting swathes of sectors, we need to target activities that lend themselves to super-spreader dangers. By their very nature, small businesses are far safer and easier to keep open.
Finally, it is up to all of us to ensure that this Easter is not remembered as a super-spreader event. The government, through law enforcement agencies, should ensure that regulations are enforced, and each of us need to continue washing our hands or sanitising them and avoiding large gatherings that don’t allow for social distancing.
• Zungu is president of the Black Business Council and chairperson of Zungu Investment Company which owns AmaZulu Football Club
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