ONGAMA MTIMKA | Problems at Eskom are bigger than Mantashe

Gwede Mantashe is unlikely to go anywhere as mineral resources and energy minister, despite calls for him to be fired for his purported role in the energy crisis the country faces.

That is because, quite frankly, there would be no Cyril Ramaphosa second term without the intervention of Mantashe at a crucial time in the run-up to the 55th ANC conference last December.

As the president was reportedly getting ready to deliver his resignation speech after the release of the section 89 independent parliamentary panel into the Phala Phala scandal, it is said to have been Mantashe who convinced him and his aides to cancel the presidential address that had already been publicly announced.  

With hindsight, it was an act of boldness that saved the nation from a potential reversal of the emerging political momentum for some positive reforms in law enforcement, no matter how small and slow it has been, had the president’s political opponents managed to regain lost ground.

As the president twists and turns on his office chairs at the Union Buildings and at Mahlambandopfu, several considerations are racing through his mind regarding how best to approach what will be his apex cabinet reshuffle.

He is probably grappling with the question of how to do the cabinet reshuffle in a way that helps him improve his public image and strengthen his political standing, while also helping to improve state capacity.

The rationale of strengthening state capacity may be secondary to the real politik imperatives of staying in office and improving his image. That is partly because it has become entrenched in the ANC that cabinet positions are secured and lost based on political battles, not individual performance or failure.

How Ramaphosa treats his most loyal backer, Mantanshe, and the designated successor, Paul Mashatile, presents a seismic political risk. A fallout that is serious enough will determine the length of time he enjoys his renewed support and affect the already vulnerable ANC caucus in parliament.

But these constraints do not bode well for Ramaphosa’s equally important imperative of improving his image domestically and internationally from a slow and indecisive leader who lacks courage to a bold, decisive and courageous leader.  Many in the traditional constituency of the ANC do not only judge the president’s decision-making based on some “common sense view” defined by big business but based on the extent to which he shows autonomy from vested local and international interests.

Likewise, some sections of business will judge the president based on whether his decisions reflect autonomy from those they brand as “ideologues” in the ANC, the very constituency that makes his presidency.

Calls for Ramaphosa to fire Mantashe as part of the proposed solution to the energy crisis appears to many as a direct attack on the strategic national interests as it affects the justness of SAs transition to cleaner energy sources rather than on the person of Mantashe.

Mantashe was among the leftists who ushered Jacob Zuma into the ANC and country’s presidency. He was a key figure in defending Zuma during the years of state capture, particularly making sure that the ANC fiddled while Rome burnt; and the Zondo commission has fingered him in undue benefits from the erstwhile Bosasa, presumably for political protection.

Notwithstanding, Mantashe is probably the last man standing when it comes to ensuring that the transition to cleaner renewable energies is just. However, he is accused of taking long to procure new generation capacity and has been portrayed as a coal fanatic.

Granted, Mantashe has his role to play in the delays to bring about additional capacity but the problems at Eskom are bigger than him. In recent interviews, he has pointed out that Eskom continues to report way less than its total installed capacity and the utility has not been held accountable for that. He has a point, and the answers may lie somewhere between the claims from new generation proponents and those who feel the coal fleet is not being managed effectively and efficiently.

The report of Eskom to Scopa presented the full scope of issues at play from funding constraints to operational issues and the limitations of operating an aged fleet. It was quite evident that there is a poor national leadership and coordination issue overall at Eskom.

The utility is operating in a crisis but with a business-as-usual approach both by its internal and external stakeholders. There is scope for a more meaningful presidential intervention than public relations stunts and shifting Mantashe.

Dr Ongama Mtimka is a lecturer and political analyst in the department of history and political studies of the Faculty of Humanities at Nelson Mandela University. He writes in his personal capacity.