There is a popular tale, now widely accepted as a myth, that in the 1970s, a US politician asked a Chinese leader about the global impact of the 1789 French Revolution, and the leader replied: “It is too early to tell.”
The story is untrue and seems to have resulted from a misunderstanding of a question, asked through an interpreter, to Chinese leader Zhou Enlai, which he thought was about the 1968 French protests.
“It is too early to tell” is also a refrain one hears a lot these days in conversations about the goings-on at the Madlanga commission and the parliamentary ad hoc committee, which have been appointed to investigate the startling claims made by KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi about the police ministry and sections of political management being under the command and influence of a criminal syndicate.
While almost anyone seems to accept that the top echelons of the country’s police service are deeply rotten and captured, there are conflicting opinions on whether suspended police minister Senzo Mchunu was acting in good faith or under the influence of the same criminal network when he ordered the disbandment of the political killings task team.
We would probably know the definite answer at the very end of both processes.
The other question that keeps coming up at both inquiries is that of intra-political party election campaigning and its funding.
It is a question that can easily be overlooked by both processes, as it does not form part of the direct terms of reference of either.
And yet it may be at the very core of the problem.
If Mkhwanazi, former police minister Bheki Cele, Witness C and others who have testified before both bodies are to be believed, Mchunu came under the direct influence of the criminal syndicate after he sought the assistance of “tenderpreneur” and attempted murder accused Vusumuzi “Cat” Matlala in funding his presidential bid.
Of course, Mchunu denies this. His defenders are quick to point out that, so far, there has been no direct evidence linking the minister to Matlala. Much of what we have heard, they state, is from cops and a former police minister who claim to have been told of Mchunu’s presidential ambitions by Matlala.
What if Matlala was being swindled by Mchunu’s associates who used their proximity to the minister to make a quick buck from an obviously deep-pocketed and yet troubled Matlala? they ask.
It would not be the first time that a businessman — dubious or legit — is made to part with a good fortune in support of a leadership campaign that never was.
But still, there is no denying that Mchunu’s name has been one of those being bandied about in political circles when the post-Cyril Ramaphosa era is discussed.
Even those who say he does not have “that thing” to be president saw an advantage in having him as a candidate for the deputy presidency, especially because they believed it would win them the backing of KwaZulu-Natal ANC branches.
Is it too early to tell then whether Mchunu, aware that he is a serious contender for either the ANC presidency or deputy presidency, put together his own campaign team to turn the ambition into reality?
Given the role he personally played in the CR17 campaign — which was established to lobby for the support of Ramaphosa’s ANC presidential bid in 2017 — could it be that one of the important lessons he learnt there was that an ANC conference cannot be won without loads of money?
And did that lead to him and his team going on a fundraising drive to build a war chest?
It is often said that the CR17 campaign raised and spent close to a billion rand for the 2017 conference. We are yet to learn how much rival bids raised, some of which were suspected of syphoning funds from state coffers.
But what has become clear from all of this is that election to a top ANC leadership position is an extremely expensive affair.
Now if you happen to have not built the kind of networks the likes of Ramaphosa would have done during their time as captains of industry, who is going to give you the required millions for your campaign?
The popular Struggle song may tell us that “Amandla ase masebeni — the power is with the branches”, but the truth is that the branches — most of whom are made up of the unemployed — do not have that kind of money.
It is too early to tell, perhaps, but future generations would probably say the correct lyrics of the song should have read: “Amandla ase maseleni — the power is with the thieves.”
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