OPINION | SA’s G20 presidency a lever for change

SA’s presidency of the G20 arrives at a moment of critical transition.

Global trade policy, finance mechanisms and climate commitments set in the G20 reverberate rapidly through open middle-income economies like ours.

With the G20 Leaders’ Summit taking place on African soil for the first time, SA has a unique platform but also a unique test to turn diplomatic visibility into meaningful economic outcomes.

The global backdrop is sobering. Emerging markets remain the primary engine of growth among G20 economies, yet many face rising debt burdens, fragile investor confidence and volatile capital flows.

Domestically, SA’s economy is beset by problems; growth in 2024 ran at only 0.6% year-on-year. Unemployment remains deeply entrenched, with the official rate at 33.2% in Q2 2025, affecting about 8.4-million people.

These realities frame the stakes: growth alone cannot deliver broad-based prosperity without deliberate policy alignment.

In this context, the G20 presidency is not ceremonial; it is a lever for change. The challenge is to shift the narrative from one where developing economies are passive recipients of global rules to one where they are active authors of a fairer architecture.

Africa is central to this story. UN projections place the continent at 25% of the global population by 2050 and up to 40% by 2100, with 30% of global mineral reserves and 65% of arable land. These fundamentals create responsibility and demand for leadership.

Domestically, the summit will deliver an immediate economic boost. Estimated direct tourism and service revenues are about R1.2bn as delegates, media and support staff arrive.

Hotels and conference facilities around Sandton are investing in upgrades, generating temporary jobs in construction, hospitality, logistics and catering.

The bigger question is whether this one-off gain can be converted into a lasting MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences, exhibitions) pipeline and longer tourism stays.

Achieving this will require coordinated public-private partnerships, supplier development, and marketing anchored on local creative and service industries.

Trade and investment exposure magnify the stakes. Exports of goods and services represented 31.85% of GDP in 2024, with a heavy reliance on a few major partners: China, the EU and the US collectively absorb a large share of exports.

This concentration heightens vulnerability: shifts in G20 trade policy, supply chain incentives or protectionist measures translate directly into export earnings and manufacturing output.

The composition of exports, dominated by mining, vehicles and agriculture, further deepens sensitivity to climate and trade policy changes.

Foreign direct investment remains a critical channel for technology transfer and job creation. SA garnered around $661.5m in FDI inflows in Q1 2025, yet volatility remains high.

Access to concessional finance, strategic linkages between projects, and policy credibility will determine whether the G20 presidency becomes a catalytic platform or merely a symbolic banner.

The G20 platform gives SA standing to argue that decarbonisation in the global South should be supported via concessional finance, not penalised by higher borrowing costs. Africa contributes less than 4% of global emissions but bears a disproportionate climate burden.

Labour markets remain a pressing challenge. With unemployment at 33.2%, youth unemployment at 46.1%, and inequality so entrenched, growth alone will not deliver inclusive prosperity.

The G20 agenda must pair trade and investment strategies with reskilling programmes, apprenticeships, and place-sensitive social protection.

For coal or energy-intensive regions, a just transition framework must combine income support with retraining for green jobs, alongside local industrial anchors to absorb workers.

Africa’s creative economy, film, music, digital content and culture already contribute tens of billions to GDP and employ millions.

SA’s G20 year should therefore promote “more than minerals”: the creative, tech and digital sectors that shape global perceptions and attract venture capital.

Continental integration via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is another key opportunity. Africa’s GDP, roughly $2.8-trillion in 2025, remains smaller than India’s $4.2-trillion or China’s $19.2-trillion, and intra-African trade remains underdeveloped.

By aligning G20 priorities with AfCFTA infrastructure corridors, regulatory harmonisation, and skills exchange, SA can transform this presidency into a stepping stone for continental integration and deeper value chains.

Domestic policy priorities must be sharply focused: accelerate energy system and logistics reforms; design industrial policy for green value chains and local content; structure fiscal planning to channel concessional global finance into both social and capital investment; and deploy comprehensive worker transition programmes in regions facing structural job losses.

If we convert summit diplomacy into credible project pipelines, translate visibility into investor confidence, and align international finance with domestic reform, we can redefine Africa’s role in global governance.