Tourism continues to be one of SA’s most significant economic sectors, contributing to job creation, about 9% of GDP, investment mobilisation and, most importantly, the sustainability of community livelihoods.
During a recent media briefing, tourism minister Patricia de Lille noted that SA recorded 10.5-million international tourist arrivals in 2025, the highest figure since the Covid-19 pandemic and a substantial increase compared to 2024’s figure of 8.9-million.
Echoing this milestone, President Cyril Ramaphosa said in his state of the nation address that one job is supported for every 13 international tourist arrivals. Collectively, these figures signal global confidence in SA as a competitive and desirable destination.
British geographer Richard Butler’s tourism area life cycle model suggests that a destination typically goes through several stages: exploration, involvement, development, consolidation, stagnation and rejuvenation or decline.
When viewed through Butler’s lens, SA’s international tourism performance dynamics over the past 10 years reveal a non-linear pattern shaped both by internal dynamics and external global shocks.
Between 2016 and 2019, SA’s international tourism sector operated within the consolidation phase. During this period, international arrivals averaged 10.2-million visitors annually, with overseas markets (long-haul travellers) contributing about 2.6-million over the same period.
This phase represents a maturing destination; growth has stabilised and the destination is well entrenched with the source markets. Furthermore, growth was plateauing. A significant structural factor during this period was strong regional dependency, driven by the large number of tourists from within Africa.
While this regional market provides stability, overdependence on it may constrain foreign-exchange yield and income and limit opportunities for diversification.
The period between 2020 and 2021 saw an unprecedented decline in tourists triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and global travel restrictions. International arrivals declined dramatically, averaging 2.6-million over the period, and most visitors originated from regional African markets. Importantly, this phase underscored the resilience of regional travel corridors.
Between 2022 and 2025, the tourism sector entered a stage of recovery and partial rejuvenation, with international arrivals averaging 6.2-million and overseas arrivals averaging 2-million a year.
While this suggests a substantial improvement compared to the pandemic years, the figure remains below the pre-Covid-19 average. This recovery is marked by the gradual reopening of international borders, the restoration of flight activity, improved traveller confidence and regional market resilience.
Looking ahead, international arrivals in 2026 are likely to exceed 2025 levels, supported by visa reforms, the establishment of long-haul direct flights and stronger public-private sector collaboration, particularly in destination marketing.
The successful hosting of the G20 summit last year has cemented SA as a destination that’s capable of hosting large-scale meetings and business events.
— Mafanedza Makumbi
The successful hosting of the G20 Summit last year has cemented SA as a destination that’s capable of hosting large-scale meetings and business events. The success of the summit is immediately evident, as the country has been selected to host a World Economic Forum special meeting, Spring Davos, in 2027. Events of this nature strengthen SA’s competitiveness in holding meetings, conferences and exhibitions.
SA’s sustained competitiveness as a destination will depend on strategic diversification of source markets while retaining the current markets, expanded air access, visa facilitation and coherent destination branding.
The country’s tourism sector must pursue adaptive resilience through travel policy reform and digital communication. Social media is a central platform for destination marketing and communication due to its extensive reach and ability to engage large, diverse audiences.
It plays a pivotal role in shaping travel intentions and purchase decisions, with digital creators amplifying destination narratives through electronic word-of-mouth and experiential storytelling. In this way, South African tourism will deliberately shift from recovery to structural renewal and sustainable rejuvenation.
- Dr Makumbi is a lecturer in the University of Pretoria’s marketing management department.
