Ordinarily, a party that has seen its share of the vote dramatically slip from the north side of 50% to just around a disastrous 40% will have its leader or the entire leadership collective fall on its sword.
The sharp decline in electoral support, no matter the circumstances, is seen as a vote of no confidence in the leadership. And so those in charge voluntarily step down, even if they don’t believe themselves to be the cause of the slump, just to give the organisation a chance to rebuild itself and win back the confidence of the electorate.
This practice is not confined to the much-maligned “liberal democracies” but is accepted even among those who consider themselves anti-imperialist, progressive or African nationalists. There isn’t enough space here to give all the historical examples from across the world. But maybe one that is related to our own history would suffice.
In the late 1960s in exile, ANC members were not at ease. They had been away from the country for close to a decade, and there were no signs that they’d be triumphantly returning home soon.
Attempts by the military wing, uMkhonto weSizwe, to infiltrate armed cadres back into the country for guerrilla warfare via the then-occupied Zimbabwe — which was misnamed Rhodesia at the time — had been a demoralising military setback.
Party structures in countries such as Zambia, Tanzania and even the UK were moribund, and the ANC’s existence in South Africa was negligible.
Hence, when party delegates gathered for their special national conference in Morogoro, Tanzania, in 1969, much of the criticism was directed at the organisation’s national leadership.
Oliver Tambo, who had become acting president after what we now know as the killing of Albert Luthuli by the state, reacted to the scathing criticism of the leadership by resigning.
Tambo knew that the criticism was not personally directed at him, but as the leader of the collective he felt the responsible thing to do was to step down, given that the delegates did not have confidence in the collective he was the head of.
By the end of the consultative conference, the delegates had roundly rejected his resignation and elected Tambo as president-general with a fresh mandate on how to take the liberation struggle forward. The rest, as they say, is history.
By stepping down, Tambo gave space to the then embattled ANC to have a debate about its future without being clouded by loyalties to the incumbent leadership. Members were able to decide on a new programme to reinvigorate the struggle and then to objectively decide which personalities were best suited to drive that programme.
That is not what happened when the ANC lost its majority in 2024. President Cyril Ramaphosa and his National Executive Committee stayed on and seemed to have no appetite for the general membership’s review of the collective leadership’s role in the decline of electoral support. The NEC took no responsibility.
Instead, it was business as usual, with only the KwaZulu-Natal provincial executive committee and its Gauteng equivalent being disbanded.
But we all know that the ANC’s decline in KwaZulu-Natal was not all due to Siboniso Duma’s exaggerated sense of self-importance. Gauteng ANC’s losses were not just because of Panyaza Lesufi’s propensity to promise more than he can deliver. There were national factors that should not be ignored.
The national leadership, however, never took stock — other than blaming their dismal performance on the fact that their former president, Jacob Zuma, had stolen a huge chunk of their base.
This failure to introspect may have far-reaching consequences for the upcoming municipal elections.
But we all know that the ANC’s decline in KwaZulu-Natal was not all due to Siboniso Duma’s exaggerated sense of self-importance. Gauteng ANC’s losses were not just because of Panyaza Lesufi’s propensity to promise more than he can deliver.
We are four months away from the November 4 polls, and yet the country’s dominant political party — the one that runs the vast majority of municipalities — does not seem to have a clear and convincing message for voters.
Still not clear why its 2024 campaign message did not resonate with its traditional base, the ANC seems unable to craft a new narrative that would get the electorate coming out in numbers to keep it in power.
Although in the coming days the party is expected to finally announce its mayoral candidates for the various metros, these nominees’ efforts would be largely hampered by the fact that the ANC at the national level seems to have no story to tell whatsoever.
Here in Johannesburg, it is looking increasingly likely that the ANC mayoral candidate is going to be the respected and much-loved anti-apartheid cleric Frank Chikane.
But while most people in Soweto, Alexandra, Westbury, Lenasia and Diepsloot would rather trust Chikane than bank their future with former DA leader Helen Zille, they may find it hard to put their “X” next to his name given the ANC’s recent track record in the city and at the national level.
Had the ANC NEC stepped down after the 2024 elections, maybe — just maybe — the party would have had a chance to come up with a new narrative of renewal and a fresh start that would have excited the voter.
But, as things stand, they are going to November’s polls with the same script as 2022 — and it is not looking good.
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