SIBONGAKONKE SHOBA | ANC needs Motsepe more than he needs it

Way back in 2006, President Cyril Ramaphosa was forced to issue a statement denying that he had any ambitions of becoming ANC president. “I have not engaged, nor sought to engage others on my behalf in any campaign with respect to the presidency of the ANC, and have no interest in being a candidate,” he was quoted as saying.

Again in 2012, immediately after being elected deputy to then ANC president Jacob Zuma, Ramaphosa issued a similar message, even suggesting that he had been reluctant to be elected alongside Zuma.

It is now history that Ramaphosa went on to stage a dramatic victory at Nasrec in 2017 without the blessing of the incumbent, who had preferred Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to take over the party.

This history is important when analysing CAF president Patrice Motsepe’s denials that he has ambitions of becoming ANC president. Many ANC leaders, including Zuma himself, have at some point been forced to distance themselves from public campaigns endorsing their candidacy before the party formally opens the process.

The ANC still behaves like a banned, underground movement, where political ambition is frowned upon. Yet the ground is never level, as some are allowed to use their positions to advance their campaigns.

I cannot say with authority whether Motsepe has any interest in becoming ANC president. However, history tells us that such campaigns seldom exist without the candidate whispering to someone about their ambition. His backers were aggressive in pushing his campaign a few months ago until the ANC issued a reprimand, threatening to discipline anyone shouting “PM27”.

This campaign received a boost this week after a poll conducted by the Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation revealed that Motsepe is miles ahead of other ANC candidates. Party secretary-general Fikile Mbalula comes a distant second.

According to the poll, Motsepe gets the nod from both ordinary South Africans and ANC supporters. I hold no brief for Motsepe. In fact, whoever becomes ANC president is as relevant to me as the next match of that other team from Orlando.

You would expect such a poll to generate a lot of interest among ANC members and leaders. According to the survey, Motsepe could be the party’s last hope to reclaim the ground it lost in the 2024 general election, where it dipped below 50% for the first time since 1994.

Instead, watch ANC leaders work tirelessly to frustrate the Motsepe campaign to ensure he doesn’t raise his hand. To many ANC leaders, the next ANC national conference is not about saving the party or getting the best candidate to lead SA, but about a tussle over who’s next in line to control state resources.

The ANC succession line is long, and most of the 80-member national executive committee harbour uncontrollable ambitions. That is why the response to the Motsepe campaign has been to label him an outsider who has not served in the party’s lower structures.

Those who call him an outsider are being ahistorical because, decades ago, a troubled ANC fetched Dr James Moroka from his medical practice to become its president even though he had not been an active member. So Motsepe wouldn’t be the first. But this is a different ANC.

A senior party leader told me recently that anyone who wants to lead the party should get their hands dirty and campaign for the upcoming local elections. That’s the kind of gatekeeping that has driven many skilled South Africans away from politics. Ironically, the ANC has long identified gatekeeping as one of the reasons for its dramatic decline.

Yet, party leaders continue to question Motsepe’s activism within its structures. His candidacy is being challenged by characters with skeletons tumbling out of their closets — leaders who can only drag ANC voter support below 40%.

Motsepe does not need to be president of the ANC. He is one of the richest, if not the richest, black South Africans. His position as CAF president makes him one of the most influential men in world football. His two terms in Cairo have enhanced his global image — with some even hinting at a possible campaign for the Fifa presidency. But with the fallout threatening his friend Gianni Infantino’s re-election, the domestic leadership race might prove more attractive.

With the kind of money Motsepe possesses, the ANC presidency — and that of the country — would be another tick on his bucket list. For him, being elected by ANC delegates would not be a life-and-death matter, unlike it would for his comrades at Luthuli House.

It’s the ANC that needs Motsepe more than he needs the job. The big question, though, is whether he has the appetite to inherit a brand as tainted as the ANC.