Banyana need a point to be sure against Mali, but might be safe with a defeat

Banyana Banyana need a point in their last Group C game against Mali on Monday to be sure of their place in the quarterfinals of the Women's Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco, though seem likely to go through even with a defeat.

The defending champions meet Mali, who also have four points atop Group C, at Stade d'Honneur in Oujda on Monday (9pm SA time).

Ghana and Tanzania, who each have a point, meet at the same time in Berkane.

A draw for Banyana and Mali will see both go to an unassailable five points and progress, with coach Desiree Ellis' South Africans in first place because they have a better goal difference.

While the South African Football Association put out a press release stating Banyana have already confirmed their progression, this information is incorrect.

Caf competitions use the head-to-head results in matches between sides level on points as the first level of criteria.

If South Africa lose and Ghana beat Tanzania, Mali would end in first and Banyana and the Black Queens would be level on four points. Banyana beat Ghana 2-0 in their opener so would progress on the head-to-head rule.

If Banyana lose and Tanzania beat Ghana, the East Africans (who have a -1 goal difference and drew 1-1 against South Africa) would have to win by four clear goals against the Black Queens to proceed.

Article 71.1 of the competition regulations states if teams end level on points the side that progresses will be decided by:

• The greatest number of points obtained in the match between the two teams concerned;
• The goal difference in all group matches;
• The greatest number of goals scored in all group matches;
• A drawing of lots conducted by the organising committee.

If Banyana lose against Mali and Tanzania win by three clear goals against Ghana, South Africa and Tanzania would be on the same goal difference (+2). In that event goals scored would count and Tanzania, presently on one, would be likely to go above South Africa's present three (which could change depending on the losing scoreline against Mali), and should progress.

All of which is a somewhat complicated way of saying South Africa should get a point or better to make sure against Mali, though seem relatively safe even in the event of a defeat.