This week President Cyril Ramaphosa will mount arguably his biggest fight to hold onto the presidency.
The ANC’s highest decision-making body, the national executive committee, will debate and decide on its approach to the report by former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo, which found that Ramaphosa has a prima facie case to answer on the Phala Phala scandal.
Tomorrow, parliament will debate and vote on whether to set up an impeachment inquiry based on the findings that the president may have violated the constitution.
By now we know that last week Ramaphosa was ready to step down, perhaps to avoid what may be a lengthy, messy and potentially embarrassing impeachment inquiry.
But he was persuaded by his staunch allies to stay the course and fight.
Their reasoning is that the report is legally flawed, largely relies on hearsay evidence and therefore cannot form the basis of a process to remove the head of state.
Whether they truly believe that is anyone’s guess.
The report is clear on the constitutional obligations that the president failed to meet.
The more likely reason for persuading him to stay is their own self-preservation as most serve in the government at his pleasure.
Moreover, with an ANC void of credibility, Ramaphosa’s backers believe that it is only with him at the helm that the party stands any reasonable chance of retaining its majority come the 2024 elections.
So what is their strategy?
Ramaphosa has said he will take the report on review.
That process will clarify some of the legal questions that have arisen from the report and set a precedent on the legal interpretations of its findings.
But more urgent is what will unfold on the political front.
Ramaphosa’s detractors in the ANC caucus have already indicated they will vote in support of establishing the impeachment inquiry.
On the other hand, based on their posture, it is likely that his supporters in the same caucus will vote against the report, thus shutting down the move to establish such an inquiry.
Doing so would achieve their goal of averting a political nightmare for Ramaphosa, albeit in the short term.
But significantly, it would demonstrate that despite its proclaimed commitment to reform, yet again, the ANC is prepared to use its majority to shield a compromised president from fully accounting for what happened on his property.
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